Is the model Gemini Experimental 1206 an early version of what will be Gemini 2 Pro? | Manifold

Is the model Gemini Experimental 1206 an early version of what will be Gemini 2 Pro?

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Resolves yes if Google states that the model now available as gemini-exp-1206 is an early checkpoint of Gemini 2 Pro.

Resolves when the answer is clear from the paper, model card, or communications of Google DeepMind.

Resolves NO when it's stated that Gemini Experimental 1206 is an early checkpoint of Gemini 2 Ultra, Flash, or any other model.

If they don't say anything about these experimental models, resolves N/A.

If there is no Gemini 2 Pro model, resolves N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/1869069344296346017

This moved my estimates up significantly; why would Sundar himself tweet this if it weren't a model different from Flash?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Because gemini-exp-1206 scores higher than gemini-2.0-flash-exp on lmarena, I don't feel like I have enough information to resolve this market yet.

bought Ṁ150 YES

Yah, if anything it is evidence that 1121 was an early version of 2.0 flash (it's at most a few ELO alead of 1121) and 1206 at around 30 ELO higher is something else (pro?)

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