Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ2491
2087
4%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_MacAskill

Sep 21, 9:43pm: Resolves no if he dies without the Nobel Peace Prize.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

If he never wins the Nobel Peace Prize, when will this resolve NO?

predicts YES

@TomShlomi I put the close date to when he is 100, if he dies before then it resolves no. Any suggestions of how to improve this kind of question?

predicts NO

@jorge Seems like a good resolution criteria, I'd just recommend making it explicit in the market description

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules