Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
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26
Ṁ2262
2030
47%
chance

By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.

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Is a Rwanda style holocaust caused by AI amplified propaganda going to count?

@JessicaEvans If it's directly attributable to AI, i.e. it's made with AI capabilities, yes.

What about a flash crash that resolves quickly and the losses are essentially transient? What about a longer lived stock market crash?

@Prime If one week after the crash is over it's estimated to have destroyed more than 100 billion in total value, then I think it's reasonable to call it a massive catastrophe. If the value ever fell by 100 billion but then rose again by 100 billion quickly afterwards, then I don't think that's the case.

Demonstrating causality could be tricky in many future scenarios

@MalachiteEagle Maybe but in case of contention, I'll defer to the mods' consensus.

If this was done deliberately by a nation using an AI as a weapon, how would you resolve?

@YonatanCale Yes, as long as it's done in a way directly attributable AI.

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