🏅 Top traders

Spanish parliament rejects amnesty bill for Catalan separatists

The reason for the recent drop in this market (as far as I can tell):

• Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont asks for amnesty to support new Sánchez government | EuroNews

• Pedro Sánchez scores tactical win in Spain’s post-election wrangling | FT (archive)

• Spain’s Premier Eyes Grand Bargain With Separatists for New Term | Bloomberg (archive)

COULD THERE BE ANOTHER ELECTION?

If no candidate secures a majority within two months of the first vote, new elections have to be called.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-messy-election-outcome-what-you-need-know-2023-07-24/

Spain election: who won and what happens next?

Spain’s parliamentary election on July 23 ended with political gridlock after the right failed to clinch a predicted decisive victory, leaving regionalist parties as kingmakers and the door wide open for a repeat ballot.

@SirCryptomind
PP/Vox: Not going to happen. Conservative regional parties like PNV and Canary Coalition are not willing to negotiate.
'Grand coalition' of the PP/PSOE: This would mean destruction for both parties in the next election. Not going to happen either.
New leftist minority government: This one is interesting. Most of the parties Sanchez needs to make deals with are willing to make deals, partly out of fear of getting worse results in a repeat election. The main obstacle for this government is getting the support of Junts per Catalunya, which also risks losing power in a repeat election but their political framework is very different.

The way I see it I think a leftist minority government is more likely to happen than not, but for now the odds are close to even.

@TenShino Update on this. PP snatched a seat from PSOE thanks to foreign vote. Because of this, for a leftist minority government to happen PSOE need Junts to vote in favor of Sanchez, while previously they only needed them to abstain from voting. This could mean another election is more likely to happen, but negotiations with Junts are already underway.
To sum up, the situation is pretty much the same. A repeat elections is slightly more likely than before but it's still close to even.