64% chance. See: https://twitter.com/atomic_semi https://atomicsemi.com/ Jim Keller is a legendary computer architecture mercenary, and Sam Zeloof is a young hotshot famous for building a silicon fab in his garage as a high schooler. They've started a company together -- Atomic Semi -- pulling a $15M investment from OpenAI. Will they have sold anything meaningful before 2028? Same rules as https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-terraform-industries-sell-some: stock sales, swag, flamethrowers, and NFT baseball cards don't count. IP, design contracting, or physical semiconductors all DO count. Resolves based on any information that's publicly available and/or shared with this market at close time. "Sell" as in "closed a sales contract", they don't need to actually deliver before 2028.