Will the US formally annexation Greenland by Dec 31, 2030>
Basic
13
Ṁ1594
2031
14%
chance

The question poised asks whether the United States government will issue an official statement, or pass a legal formality to indicate the formal inclusion of Greenland as a territory (or state) of the United States by or before 31st December 2030.

Both the US and Danish governments, their official spokespersons, or an internationally recognized body such as the United Nations must officially communicate annexation, in order for the prediction to be valid.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Will probably never be a military annexation, but Trump can apply pressure in different ways. Embargo, sanctions, revoke defense guarantee for Denmark. Make it more costly for Denmark to keep Greenland (Greenland is already subsidized by/dependent on Denmark) than to relinquish it to the US.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@FoxKHTML then the EU would retaliate

@MalachiteEagle The EU is entirely dependent on the US in both trade and security. If the US says it’s us or Denmark, no one is siding with Denmark.

@FoxKHTML no, that is nonsense

The legal term would probably be a purchase, not annexation.

Does it still count if the Greenlandic government opposes it?

@BrunoParga Thanks for the clarification. Yes, the spirit of the question is whether the US will have international recognition of governing Greenland, likely through purchase. Thanks for the clarification. This is my first manifold question- is it bad practice to amend the question after users have already bet?

@hemocrates welcome! Good job with an interesting question.

I think it's best to err on the side of caution and just add a clarification in the question description (not the title) that any legal term - annexation, cession, purchase, transfer, accession or anything like that - is valid, so long as America instead of the Kingdom of Denmark is the sovereign state ruling Greenland.

I'd probably also make it explicit whether consent from the Greenlandic autonomous government is required or not for this question to resolve YES.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules