How will you resolve if the media doesn’t break down case counts by year? According to the CDC, if I recall correctly, there were 66 human cases at the end of 2024. Since then there has been one case. According to this tracker, there have been a few more cases, though by my count only one new case since the new year. But I very much doubt that any media source will be careful enough to provide an answer to this question, much less a consensus of media sources.

@NicoDelon we can use the power of math to figure it out.

@jgyou yeah that’s what I did but it’d be nice to have a clear benchmark first.

Can we just use the CDC with archive.org to compare the number?

Do those confirmed in 2024 count toward the total?

@NicoDelon hm, I don’t think so? Seems like it should be confirmed in 2025 only

@ian ok, that’s how I read the question but I wasn’t 100% sure given the odds.

What's the option for 100K+ cases?

@causal_agency edited the last answer

RIP the numerical type!! https://manifold.markets/jgyou/what-will-be-the-total-number-of-h5

@jgyou so true, would be great to have a number market in this case!

@ian Worldwide or in the US?

@snazzlePop thanks, in the US

https://bsky.app/profile/scottehensley.bsky.social/post/3lb36uy5a7k25