Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered)
Apple Vision Pro Mixed Reality Headset to hit Apple Store in Mid January (December 29, 2023)
"According to Kuo’s statement, the Vision Pro is presently in mass production, with a target of 500,000 units set for 2024."
Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:
150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1
50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.
500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079
@Gabrielle In retrospect I would've done better to clarify whether pre-sales without delivery of product count towards this number. I'll take the beating here in a year's time 🫡
@AndrewQuinn I think preorders should count if they pay full price and it's non-refundable, do you disagree @Gabrielle ?
@ian Based on reporting, it seems like they might not offer preorders, since they’re going to only be sold with in-person appointments at the Apple Store, but I agree that full price, non-refundable preorders should count for this.
@hiAndrewQuinn How many companies are going to pay for AVP that didn't already buy other VR headsets? I'm sure it's nonzero, but I doubt it's high either.
https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c96a9
Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.
@Gabrielle I do believe that they won’t sell too many in the first year. But Tim Cook has been known to do magic with the supply chain.
Also, the other market is way too high, good arbitrage opportunity.
https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h?r=ZXN1c2F0eW8
@Gabrielle Hm, seems like they should count if they pay full price. @esusatyo - they are sales of headsets, just not deliveries. How is that wrong?