Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024
Basic
5
Ṁ174Jan 1
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?
57% chance
Will the odds of this market be below 50% at the end of 2024?
49% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
49% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026
49% chance
Will Questions of the form "Will this question go below X% before R" be banned by manifold markets before 2025?
10% chance
Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Which manifold.markets user will have the most questions asked about them by EOY 2024?
What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?
Will Manifold stop having obviously wrong probabilities on markets with >=50 traders by the end of 2024?
7% chance