One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%? | Manifold

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Plus

19

Ṁ4109

2025

57%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves on Aug 1, 2025. 50% is included, i.e. if the probability is exactly 50%, this resolves YES.

When I get enough mana I'll make a second market about being below 50%. I'll link it here when that happens.

Some explanation for this troll-y market:

The market encourages people to bet "with the flow". If the probability is far enough away from 50%, it becomes more and more likely for the question to resolve that way, and people won't want to bet in the other direction. However, when the probability gets extreme enough (maybe 80%), the reward for betting becomes so small that some risk-enjoying traders might want to spend huge sums on reversing the direction of the market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 YES

I'll bet to get this started - what do you guys think will be the outcome?

Related questions

Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)

Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

Will Manifold's Approval Ratings end the year over 50%? (Poll Index version)

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

will this question resolve as yes or no (resolves based on higher probability)

Related questions

Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

Will Manifold's Approval Ratings end the year over 50%? (Poll Index version)

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

will this question resolve as yes or no (resolves based on higher probability)

What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules