Will Rochelle Shen die of dysentery on the Oregon Trail by 2035?
Basic
4
Ṁ185
2036
6%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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“Die of dysentery on the Oregon Trail” is an extremely specific cause of death, so I’m betting down on priors (although this market even existing is arguably strong Bayesian evidence in favor of it occurring).

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