The same question which is not Parimutuel

https://manifold.markets/Irigi/who-will-be-the-next-president-of-r-22a0f2a2ffb5

Who will be the next President of Russia, after Vladimir Putin? (fixed)

Version of this market which is not Parimutuel. (Parimutuel is avoided by many traders as it does not preserve share values. You can add more options. The question will resolve only to a name of single individual. Do not add options like "Russia is substantially reformed", "Russia ceases to exist", or names of groups of people. Such options will never be resolved as YES. If, for some reason, the institute of the president of Russia is not a meaningfull choice, the question resolves as N/A. By president, I mean inaugurated president, not simply the person in charge.

@JuJumper this Can't Happen, not without noticeable changes to russian state? There're legal requirements to being a president of Russia — living there for a decade, not holding any other citizenship — which Lukashenko does not and likely won't ever satisfy, short of merging Belarus into Russia.

(And besides, Lukashenko is probably not embedded into russian elites to have support there, nor has any popular support particularly.)

(I'd short this if it wasn't so fiddly.)

In the case Putin cease to be the president Suddenly, I assume this resolves to the first person to be elected/inaugurated, not to whoever performs presidential duties until the election, nor whoever first has administrative/political/military control?

@797a Yes, it will resolve to the first inaugurated person, if he is gonna be a rightful president. But good point, this market needs assurance what happens in case of the coup, or if someone claims to be a president, while ie. army refuses to accept it and installs someone else 2 days later.... In Russia everything could happen.

Any suggestions?

@itsTomekK I'd say that claims to presidentship outside of standard electory procedures are not particularly rightful; this can be specified e.g. as "elected and inaugurated president in approximate agreement with russian legal procedures".

In case of coup or other turbulence I'd wait for government to stabilize, then give it some time (say, 3-6 months) to run ordinary electoral procedures. Or, if it's not on a trajectory to run elections soonish, resolve as "Russian state will be substantially changed".

If there's a prolonged lack of internally recognized government, uh, your call for how long to wait.

Another concern: legally, Russia considers several Ukrainian regions to be a part of Russia, and therefore intends to "hold elections" there too; this might well cause russian elections to be internationally unrecognized. I think for the purposes of the market russia-internal recognition would suffice, though you're the author, of course :)

@797a ...is there no easy way to buy "No" in this kind of market?

@itsTomekK I think "The next person to be internationally recognized (explicitly or implicitly, e.g. by holding talks with them) as the head of Russia" might do it. It's not perfect, of course, but takes some of the guesswork out of it.

https://manifold.markets/HerveFulchiron/will-yevgeniy-prigozhin-be-the-next

Will Yevgeniy Prigozhin be the next Russian president?

6% chance. No time limit.

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