This market will resolve YES if by January 1 2050, the number of states in the USA remains 50.
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A U.S. state is a region with its own government, part of the federal system. States have representation in Congress, autonomy in local matters, and are admitted through Congressional approval. Puerto Rico, however, is a U.S. territory, not a state.
To join the USA, a territory must conduct a referendum indicating the desire for statehood, and then Congress must pass a statehood bill that the President signs. This process involves both the will of the territory's residents and legislative action at the federal level.
For a state to leave the Union, there is no established legal or constitutional process. The U.S. Supreme Court's 1869 Texas v. White decision implies that a state cannot unilaterally secede and that any such act would be considered unconstitutional.
If at any time the number of states in the US is different than 50, does this market immediately resolve no ? ie, if the number of states changes several times between now and 1st Jan 2050 but is 50 again on Jan 1st 2050, how does this market resolve ?
(Sorry if I'm asking about something that is actually unambiguous, as I'm not a native English speaker)