Will Biden's VP assume the role of Acting President under the 25th Amendment for 24 consecutive hours during his current term?
Plus
17
Ṁ1083Jan 21
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the powers of the US President be temporarily transferred from Biden to his VP (currently Kamala Harris, but in case his VP changes then whoever his then-current VP is), via 25th amendment section 3 (Biden choosing to transfer power) or section 4 (VP and Cabinet choosing to transfer power), for a duration of at least 24 consecutive hours, during Biden's current term as President?
Biden has previously transferred power "last November for 85 minutes, when Biden was under anesthesia for a routine colonoscopy" (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/joe-biden-covid-19/index.html)
If Biden dies or otherwise leaves office, resolves NO (his successor becomes President, not Acting President).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MP yes, he can. I'm sure if he's kidnapped or something there are special provisions for that, but in general the president is still the president when abroad.
@MattP Yeah, nothing special about the president being abroad. The provision for if he's kidnapped or otherwise incapacitated is section 4 of the 25th amendment.
@jack Thinking about it, the Brazilian rule is dumb. (and can create weird outcomes when there is no vp)
Base rate: this has never happened in US history. The 25th amendment was adopted in 1967 (so there have been ~14 terms since then) and section 3 has been invoked a handful of times for short medical procedures <24 hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Invocations_and_considered_invocations
Related questions
Related questions
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
31% chance
If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?
29% chance
Will a person who is not Joe Biden or Donald Trump become the de facto president of the United States before 2028?
49% chance
Will the next President [Trump] be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
16% chance
Will President Biden resign his Presidency to Kamala Harris before the newly elected President is installed in January?
6% chance
Will the next person elected US vice president assume the presidency?
33% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 election continuously be the acting president from January 20, 2025 until January 20, 2029?
61% chance
Will Biden be removed via the 25th Amendment before election?
7% chance
Will Biden be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 this term?
1% chance
Will Trump's running mate acknowledge the Vice President's purely ceremonial role in election certification before 2025?
25% chance