Resolves YES if Rootclaim changes their Covid origins probabilities published on their website with a change of at least 30% for at least one of the hypothesis, compared to the ones displayed in the screenshot below, before the end of 2024. Otherwise NO.

Note: Currently as of Feb 2024, Rootclaim has published an updated analysis at https://cards.rootclaim.com/analysis/65892f07d97bdb00199d4366 but has not updated the main page on the website. This new analysis counts as a change, but it is less than a 30% change. The criteria for this market are a 30% change from the screenshot below.

Only the latest "official" probabilities published by Rootclaim count (e.g. probabilities stated by Saar personally do not count, unless they are stated as Rootclaim's). Only the top-line probabilities (as shown in the screenshot below) count, changes to the probabilities in the evidence/analysis do not count.

Context: The winner of the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate was just announced, and Rootclaim lost, with both judges over 98% confident that covid is not a lab leak: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal