If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?
Plus
18
Ṁ7872028
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in capabilities in the next 5 years (a paradigm shifting technical discovery) will they publish an accompanying paper within a year of the discovery of the discovery, as opposed to keeping the discovery confidential.
Resolves to my understanding of whether an advancement takes place, and the presence or lack of an accompanying paper that sufficiently aids others in replicating the methodology used in the OpenAI advancement, like google's transformers paper does.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
83% chance
Will OpenAI release their o1 model before 2025?
88% chance
Will OpenAI release a product with stateful AI agents by 2025?
80% chance
Will OpenAI release an AI product with a cool name by Jan 1, 2025?
25% chance
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
16% chance
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?
22% chance
Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?
82% chance
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
21% chance