2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

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2031

16%

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

37%

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

34%

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

13%

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

This is a market based on a poll by Dan Luu:

I wonder what the long-term rate of "working-age adults who report 'serious' difficulty remembering, concentrating, or making decisions" is going to be.
This rate had been declining basically forever for the obvious reasons, but this has turned around since 2020, also for the obvious reasons.

Implying the cause is Long Covid

The highest option is winning his poll.

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It might be interesting to see if there's any corellation with smart-device usage.

This question may be affected by proposed changes to the survey questions, as the proposed revised survey questions move to graded responses instead on binary answers. (Still in feedback phase but seems likely to happen).

https://apnews.com/article/census-disabilities-american-community-survey-27ef3422add65df9d6b1ad8798fefede#

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/director/2024/02/next-steps-on-acs-disability-questions.html

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