What will Astral Codex Ten post about in 2024?
Basic
26
Ṁ2524
Jan 1
98.4%
An explicit endorsement or anti-endorsement in the presidential election
94%
Humorous post about Trump or Biden or the presidential election
91%
A post about any psychiatric medication, or a specific class of psychiaric medications
50%
Yet another post in the Bay Area House Party series
34%
Effectiveness of SSRIs
30%
Georgism
28%
China
24%
A post about whether AIs are moral patients
23%
Any "Model City Monday"
21%
This market
21%
"hardball questions for the Presidential debate"
18%
@Tumbles (any mention)
18%
Ray Kurzweil's new book
10%
An announcement that he'll post much less indefinitely (something like a year or longer) (any mention)
9%
New serialized fiction with multiple chapters
Resolved
YES
Another post in the Bay Area House Party series
Resolved
YES
significant progress towards publishing UNSONG (hopium) (any mention)
Resolved
YES
Announcement of Unsong being published (any mention)
Resolved
YES
Covid Lab Leak theory

Must be part of the main topic of a post, unless otherwise specificed in the option. Funny options are fine.

I expect some of these to be subjective judgement calls! If I bet on something and it's disputed I'll consult with other moderators before resolving it.

Only posts after the time of posting ("Book Review Contest Rules 2024") count.

Private posts count

#Culture
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bought Ṁ200 YES

"An explicit endorsement or anti-endorsement in the presidential election" should resolve YES. He endorsed Harris.

Link: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/acx-endorses-harris-oliver-or-stein

Quote:

If you’re in a swing state, we recommend you vote Harris; if a safe state, Harris or your third-party candidate of choice.

bought Ṁ420 YES

Resolves YES @jacksonpolack

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ye-olde-bay-area-house-party

lol

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