Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
Basic
7
Ṁ4002025
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
for 2026
Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@jacksonpolack that makes sense. I was referring to the use of 2026 in the quote by Terrence Tao which claims that this will happen in 2026. But < 2026 is also a very valid and interesting question.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
61% chance
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
73% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2025?
87% chance
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
38% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
32% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
79% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
45% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
49% chance
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
31% chance