If Trump is elected U.S. President in 2024, when will the Russia-Ukraine war end?
Basic
10
Ṁ918
2026
11%
The war will end before the 2024 U.S. president is elected.
1.4%
The war will end between Trump being elected and being sworn in.
1%
The war will end his first day in office.
2%
The war will end his first week in office, after his first day.
54%
The war will end before 2026, after his first week in office.
31%
The war won't end before 2026.

I'll give a week into 2026 for a potential lag on consensus of when the war has ended in the case it's unclear if it has ended or not around the new year. I will resolve to N/A iff Trump is not elected, even if the war ends before the election.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What if Trump is not elected? N/A? Even if the war ends before the election?

@Irigi In that case I'll resolve to N/A, even if the the war ends before the election. For this poll I'm curious what people think based on Trump's assertion he'd end the war his first day

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules