Will I run a marathon in 2024?
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29
Ṁ5662Jan 2
18%
chance
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1W
1M
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I have not run a marathon before, but kind of want to try this year.
Resolves to YES if I run a distance of 26.2 miles in a single attempt. Does not have to be at an official race (but if it happens it likely will be).
I will only bet YES and will not sell any positions.
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@jcbmrshll based on these figures and your question description, let's just say I'm highly skeptical but would be very impressed if you did ;)
@diadematus this for example is a more bullish profile that I'm still shorting because training and running a full marathon is really hard https://manifold.markets/CrissmanLoomis/will-i-run-the-2023-osaka-marathon
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