Resolves YES if Donald Trump attends Joe Biden's funeral in person.
Resolves YES if Joe Biden attends Donald Trump's funeral in person.
Resolves NO if neither Biden nor Trump attend the funeral of the other.
If both Trump and Biden are still alive at the close date, then the closing should be postponed.
For this market, "Donald Trump" is only Donald John Trump, born on 14 June 1946.
For this market, "Joe Biden" is only Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., born on 20 November 1942.
1,000
3.00When is the last time a living current or former president failed to take part in the funeral events of a deceased president?
I tried looking at the last several, to see who participated, according to Wikipedia:
Bush1 (2018) - Carter, Clinton, Bush2, Obama, Trump present
Ford (2006) - Carter, Bush1, Clinton, Bush2 present
Reagan (2004) - Ford, Carter, Bush1, Clinton, Bush2 present
Nixon (1994) - Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush1, Clinton present
Johnson (1973) - Nixon present
Truman (1972) - Nixon absent, by Nixon's own deliberate choice
Eisenhower (1969) - Nixon, Johnson present
Hoover (1964) - Johnson, Truman, Eisenhower present
Kennedy (1963) - Johnson, Truman, Eisenhower present, Hoover absent due to illness and sent his sons
Roosevelt (1945) - Truman present
By my count, there have been a total of 2 absent current/former presidents over the last 10 presidential deaths. With 29 cases where they did show up. And we're currently on a streak of 20 in a row.
If any living former presidents die before either of these two die, it will be interesting to see if Trump and Biden both show up. If they do, I think that increases the chances that one would appear the funeral of the other.
Some potential reasons a president might not show up, based on this list and some additional brainstorming:
Personal dislike of the other person (Nixon's absence for Truman's funeral)
Illness or old age (Hoover's absence for Kennedy's funeral)
Incarceration (this website thinks there is a chance Donald Trump will be unable to move freely in the future)
There might also be some chance a former president does not get a state funeral, either by his request or due to events during/after their presidency. That could play into it as well.
Feels like the base rate is over 50% but I found this at 20% so I bought some Yes.
@Eliza @jacksonpolack If you happen to be a No believer on this market I eagerly await a limit order to consider filling.