“Venezuela is expanding military bases near its border with Guyana and deploying forces to the jungle frontier as President Nicolás Maduro ramps up his threats to annex the country’s oil-rich neighbour, satellite images have revealed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/09/venezuela-troops-guyana-border-essequibo-satellite-images

If Venezuela invades, this is a guaranteed yes. Guyana is basically the size of Belarus, but very sparsely populated. Holding a bit of territory is easy

Changed market title to better represent original intent.

What does this question mean, exactly? Venezuela cannot annex territory which it already considers to be theirs, occupied by Guyana. Do you mean that Venezuela will invade (have its troops cross the line of control)? Occupy (have its troops stay there and organize a government subject to Caracas instead of Georgetown)?

Edit: for reference, at the start of the Ukrainian invasion only Crimea was regarded by Russia as a part of its territory. Neither the Donbas republics, nor the rest of the Ukrainian territory later annexed, were part of the Russian Federation in any legal sense. But from the point of view of current Venezuelan law, Guayana Esequiba is already Venezuelan.

@BrunoParga I must admit that I did not know Venezuela already made legal claim to any amount of Guyanese territory. That being said, my intent was to resolve this question YES in the event that any de facto territorial control changes hands, irrespective of military action.
I felt that "annex" was appropriate because it seems to imply de facto rule. Do you think my intent and the wording are different enough that I should change the market title?

@jks I understand changing the market title is not great with respect to the traders, but on the other hand I am always in favor of precision and detail because it helps make market resolutions obvious and uncontroversial.

The sidebar is showing me a question saying: "Will Argentina exercise territorial control over the Falkland Islands?" Maybe this phrasing would work here, seems to better represent what you're going for.

@BrunoParga I wouldn't be on Manifold if I didn't agree with your "favor of precision and detail". I will change the title of this market and the similar markets to this:
Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 1 April 2024?