Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?

Science Space Moon

Basic

Ṁ12k

2033

ALL

0.6%

2025

1.9%

2026

1.7%

2027

18%

2028

48%

2029

57%

2030

71%

2031

78%

2032

82%

2033

86%

2034

Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well.

The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters.

i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

21% chance

Will a human land on the moon before 2028?

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Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?

63% chance

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

67% chance

In what year will the next human walk on the moon?

2029

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

71% chance

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?

41% chance

Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

59% chance

Will China land someone on the moon on this year?

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2029?

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https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIdelevich/which-agencycompany-will-send-peopl?r=QmVuamFtaW5JZGVsZXZpY2g

@creator will the year of the landing itself resolve YES or NO?

"will resolve to YES as well" sounds like it will resolve YES; but the fact that 2024 is already resolved NO and the market closes at the end of 2033, with 2034 being the last option, seems to indicate that it will resolve NO.

@dp9000 "by" means before usually in such a context. If something happens by 2023, it happened in 2022 or before - that's the usage in this market at least

@lastuserhere I understood it because you resolved 2024 as No, but it would be easier to parse if you changed the title to "Before" instead of By. It would be non-ambiguous that way.

Didn't a human land on the moon in 1969?

@Snarflak Yes, this market is for now and onwards

There are now like five versions of this market 😭 As well as a billion individual "by x year" markets

@calderknight This. 😑

Which country would the next person to land on the moon be from?

@lastuserhere

This market gives over 10% that someone will walk on the moon this year.

https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l?r=U2Vjb25kSGFuZFlU

@SecondHandYT Since loans are no longer a thing there's less incentive betting on longer term markets. I moved it down to 6% but it should obviously be a lot lower to be in line with other markets.