I also don't understand why weak AGI is so far ahead of the superintelligent oracle, given that the market has a mode of 2 months on Metaculus, so I put some YES on that market.

I don't believe that Manifold will ever judge AGI to have been achieved, which is why I bet NO and added a more concrete criteria.

I believe that AGI has already been achieved, as Claude 3 has an IQ of more than 100 and it can complete most tasks better than I can, but every time one of these models is released, people say it's not AGI yet because of some minor flaw.

@SteveSokolowski I think if AGI were achieved, we'd have massive unemployment right now.

@chris I spent 12 hours on the phone trying to source a drug that is always out of stock over the past week.

Mixtral 8x7b, running on my 4090, could have replaced both me and the pharmacists on the other end of the line. It would have been more than capable of making API calls to databases and telling my LLM whether the prescription is in stock. My instance was more than capable of understanding how to make API calls to place outgoing calls.

One of the reasons I don't think AGI will change that much is because AI already exceeds human capabilities in customer service, and Klarna saved $40m in labor costs by replacing humans with AI. And yet, nobody else is doing that despite how clearly superior AI is. People just aren't setting up graphics cards to do this for whatever reason, even though wages just keep going thorugh the roof.

jan 1 2025, or the full year?

@Jason1e41 just Jan 1st. 2025 begins happening then