Will an Israel:Hamas ceasefire come before a Russia:Ukraine one? ☮️🤝🇷🇺🇺🇦🇮🇱🇵🇸

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Jan 1

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Will there be an agreed upon Israeli-Hamas ceasefire before there is an agreed upon Russian:Ukrainian pause in fighting?

For this to count, the ceasefire must be agreed to by both sides, or by designated proxies, and must last for 24hrs before being broken/dissolved. A formal cessation in fighting in either war, through surrender or armistice, will also count.

This market will extend, as needed.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Wars

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

#🇷🇺 Russia

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

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This one’s still going too!

@mattyb Is there anything in the small print here since you're using the word "ceasefire" for the Gaza invasion but "pause in fighting" for the Ukraine invasion? Do the criteria you've listed "for this to count" apply to both conflicts?

@mattyb In other words, if Israel ends their offensive, will it still resolve YES?

@GazDownright updated the description. we’re looking for peace here, however it comes.

@mattyb Cheers

Wait, so if Israel just defeats Hamas and there are no more ceasefires this resolves no, right? I think that 93% is overvalued then.

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