Will an Israel:Hamas ceasefire come before a Russia:Ukraine one? โฎ๏ธ๐ค๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Plus
35
แน2667Jan 1
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be an agreed upon Israeli-Hamas ceasefire before there is an agreed upon Russian:Ukrainian pause in fighting?
For this to count, the ceasefire must be agreed to by both sides, or by designated proxies, and must last for 24hrs before being broken/dissolved. A formal cessation in fighting in either war, through surrender or armistice, will also count.
This market will extend, as needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@mattyb Is there anything in the small print here since you're using the word "ceasefire" for the Gaza invasion but "pause in fighting" for the Ukraine invasion? Do the criteria you've listed "for this to count" apply to both conflicts?
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an Israel:Hezbollah ceasefire before thereโs an Israel:Hamas one? ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ค๐ฑ๐ง๐ต๐ธ
66% chance
Will an Israel-Hamas cease-fire occur within 2 months of the US election?
19% chance
Will there be a ceasefire for at least a month in the Israel-Hamas conflict before 1 Jan 2025?
11% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
3% chance
Will there be an Israel-Palestine ceasefire before the US election is called?
3% chance