The critical portion here is that Donald Trump must himself admit that there have been changes in his life’s actions because of the assassination attempt(s), even if this is coming at the behest of the secret service, or another person/agency.
Market will Resolve NO on inauguration day (as even if he loses, he could be a threat until then, and if he wins, it’s expected his life would change after then).
I won’t be betting here to make the resolution more objective.
An incomplete list of things that would qualify for a YES Resolve:
“They’re not letting me golf [as much] anymore”, said in a Truth or speech.
“I’ve started praying/going to church/born again Christian/…etc.”
“I don’t go in public/make speeches as much any more”
An incomplete list of things that would not qualify for a YES Resolve:
Secret service changing protocols when Trump is in public (helicopters, closing down the county, entombing him in bulletproof glass - where he can still do as he pleases…etc.)
JD Vance (or another Trump-y person) saying anything on matter.