In the “We, Robot” Tesla event, Elon was reported as saying the following:
He also said he expects Tesla to have “unsupervised FSD” up and running in Texas and California next year in the company’s Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles. FSD, which stands for Full Self-Driving, is Tesla’s premium driver assistance system, available today in a “supervised” version for Tesla electric vehicles.
Will Tesla have unsupervised FSD up and running in Texas and California in 2025 with the Model 3 and Y, as Elon claims?
As long as full self-driving is available to consumers who own either a Model 3 or Y, in at least one part of California and Texas, in which there is no human interaction needed whatsoever, this will Resolve YES.
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@dreev I suggest you look at the name of this market. This isn't a market about whether a launch is deemed successful. You could probably make your own market about that, if that's what you want to bet on
@TiredCliche I didn't mean to imply such, just giving evocative hypotheticals. I'm interested to hear people's opinions on the best answers to these clarifying questions. I'm imagining cases where this market may feel like a YES but technically be a NO.
@dreev I mean, that doesn't feel like a YES to me- I'm betting in this market about whether Tesla will achieve a huge technical leap over competitors. If they start a business that's more successful than Waymo but the cars still can't drive themselves, then that's not unsupervised FSD.
@TiredCliche Right, we all agree this is about level 4 autonomy. The question is about the details in the market description about current Tesla owners and specific US states. My reason to mention the robotaxi launch is that that's a way for this to feel like a YES in spirit despite missing the specific criteria in the market description. Again, level 4 / unsupervised FSD is not in question.
There will be unsupervised rides provided by Tesla the company starting in June and rolling bout city by city but tesla owners will have restrictions on usage until next year. Although the smart summon and dispatch which is already driverless could have more and more areas. 85 meters of smart summon and dispatch now. If smart summon went to 250 meters. 500 meters or a kilometer would that count?
it seems like this resolves Yes if unsupervised FSD works in a single street in California, which seems strange
yes, if anyone with a 3 or Y can drive down a single street in both California and Texas this Resolves YES. I agree that this would be strange, but the strange portion would be Elon releasing FSD this way, not this market.