Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve Yes if any lead apatite family material is found to be a superconductor at temperatures above 30K and ambient pressure before 2025.

The lead apatite family will be defined to include any material that:

• Consists of at least 75% by mass of some combination of lead, oxygen, and phosphorous;

• Contains at least 1 phosphorous atom per 3 lead atoms. (For comparison, LK-99 is 97.5% lead, oxygen, and phosphorous, with 2 phosphorous atoms per lead atom.);

• Has an atomic atomic ratio of at least 1:1 Pb:Cu, and;

• Is at least 10% lead by mass.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.