Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032, a credible peer-reviewed paper is published which demonstrates a procedure that can execute any quantum program with arbitrarily good fidelity, which can be implemented using only one- and two-qubit gates with fidelity at most 95%. Any polynomially growing number of noisy one- and two-qubit gates are allowed to be used in this procedure.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.