This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.
1,000
3.00
@dlin007 this was before the match, which turned out to be a bit of foreshadowing. Still don't think Ding is the favorite but, like, if he was to win this is how it would happen
@KD89042 cause my priors are too strong, and the way I imagined a draw happening today is not how it happened. Gukesh still outplayed him easily, and is still in the drivers seat even if he's sloppy/not sharp
@ADings haven't considered how i would react in this situation because i haven't considered it at all.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 a bit...because I assumed Gukesh was in dominant form, and the trajectory of the match was entirely up to him. But maybe he is just in ordinary form in which case he might merely win a normal victory as opposed to a crushing one. But my basic thesis is still unchanged for now - at some point the dam will break and Ding will lose multiple games in a row
Lichess projection after game 3:
Ding's overall chance of winning is 32.6%.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 this is substantially different from my projection that Ding's overall chance of winning is 0.01%. He'll lose today, and his chances will not go above 10% until the end
@dlin007 Yeah, they don't describe their methodology in detail, but I think it's probably based on just their Elo rankings.
I think 0.01% is a little too confident though.