Why are some options over 25%? That's not how the market works.

who is Xian-Jin Li

I want to ask

What have the Fields-worthy achievements each of the proposed mathematician has done?

If someone is over 25% and you bet no it’s literally free money

@nathanwei They don't have to give out 4, although they have for the last 5 times.
Then again, it's not guaranteed that Wang and Tsimerman will get it, even if it does seem pretty likely.

@DanielTilkin I think it’s practically guaranteed (95%) that Wang will get it in either 2026 or 2030, but I think about 65% for 2026 and 30% for 2030. Viazovska didn’t get it until the last time she was eligible either.

Wouldn't resolving into a percentage mean you lose if you bet over 25? I really don't know

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes that’s what it means

Can you resolve this kind of market more than one abswer?

Yu Deng is very strong.

What to do about duplicate Tsimerman options?

@diracdeltafunk I'll delete one.

Oops, I forgot Gaitsgory is too old to get the Fields. I guess we can vote that to 0 🙃

Who?

@MarceloSaggiorattoCossi you can add answers