Why is 3+ so high? What are the 3 countries that could adopt bitcoin in the next 7 months?

currently 78% by 2030, but 0 in 2024? something doesn’t add up

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-any-new-country-adopt-bitcoin?r=bWlzdGVyc3BsaWNl

Will any new country adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

78% chance. except for Salvador and the Central African Republic, which have officially adopted Bitcoin as their legal tender (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/what-country-will-be-next-to-make-b)--- ➡️ check my other Bitcoin market and Tomek’s Specials! 😎

@mistersplice adds up perfectly. If there is only 23% chance that a single country adopts Bitcoin per year, after 6 years there is 78% that at least one does. In fact, that would imply approximately 67% after 1.5 years, pretty close match to this market here. 3 countries is wildly overrated though.

I think the hype around crypto very abruptly died off in 2023. VC investments in crypto are down 98% (!!!) from last year. Therefore, there is 0 point for a country to do the crypto hustle. It will obviously not be used practically as a legal tender, as numerous testimonials confirm nobody actually uses it in El Salvador. The only point in such a move is to attract FDI, but that is unlikely to work in 2023.

@PeterBuyukliev bitcoin =/= crypto

@mistersplice well that is a huge surprise, particularly to all the Bitcoin holders. Say more

@PeterBuyukliev Bitcoin is the important discovery. 99% of the other tokens are a waste of time and effort. It’s not a myspace/facebook situation, it’s more like the internet. Do you think it’s possible for someone to create another internet that will absorb all the traffic from the current one?