SG:
Yes, we are focused on the election right now, as it's election season. But after the election, AI will be a bigger focus. We plan to commission and subsidize high-quality markets on AI benchmarks, product launches, regulatory changes, etc.
The markets must provide useful information (I consider the above categories to be high quality), be well managed, and have little chance of dispute.
Examples of poorly specified markets: Will Gemini be released in 2023?
Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
Resolves to the percentage of markets I deem to be good.
Resolves NO if less than 5 AI related markets are designated sweepstakes markets before close date.
I will not trade in this market.
Similar market: Will Manifold's sweepstakes markets be higher quality than Polymarket?
1,000
3.00@nikki Do you roughly agree or disagree with this current assessment:
https://manifold.markets/topic/ai (turn on the sweepstakes view to see the sweepstakes AI markets)
I think almost all of these are quite well setup. The AI 2025 Forecasting Survey ones from AI Digest, especially, are cool. I think one that is particularly bad at the moment is https://manifold.markets/Manifold/which-new-models-will-be-released-i--cash, but I think pretty much all others (including the ones that already resolved) are quite good? that's like 15/16 roughtly. maybe you're harsher than I am or I'm missing parts of them that make them bad, idk.