Will Nate Silver be involved in a major scandal in 2024?
Basic
4
Ṁ170
2025
16%
chance

Something along the lines of "Nate Silver tweeted bad things about Biden to move a market", or "Nate Silver intentionally manipulated his model to cause large swings", or "Nate Silver paid by the RNC to make critical tweets". In short, the scandal must be big enough that nearly everyone discredits him.

Something like "Nate Silver bets on the outcome on his model" will not count

Must be public before close date. I will not bet in this market (except for base rate setting)

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Do you only mean election related scandals, or if there was something like "Nate Silver has committed domestic abuse!" or "Nate Silver is racist!" that gets a lot of traction, would that count?

yes

Yes to "only election scandals" or yes to "general scandals"?

general scandals

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