The end of the war is a broad timeframe if the past is any indicator. Although, Ukraine currently holds some small parcels of land in Russia, there is no reason to believe they will capture and hold any territory outside the original boundaries. This assumes that this conflict is settled and the calculation is based on post war allotments rather than areas held.
A Ukrainian unit captured the Gagarin mine’s spoil tip near the Pivdenne settlement on Horlivka’s outskirts. Besides being a strategically advantageous position, it also holds symbolic value — it's now the only piece of land not controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces before the full-scale war but liberated after its start.
Source: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/11/22/a-russian-winter-offensive
It will. And at some point Putin will also think so. That is why I think he is likely to use nukes as a last resort.
https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy
@twink_joan_didion Pieces of Crimea. The creator said the war began in 2022 for purposes of this question.
Definitely not saying this should cause resolution, but this is why I’m betting up the market (and also the whole Wagner thing)