After an election, stories often break about why and how the campaigns made the choices they did. This is particularly common for the losing campaign. (Think of the stories about Clinton’s strategy in Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.)
Bets here resolve YES if a story confirming them breaks by the end of 2024. Stories must be reported by a reliable media outlet or posted on social media by a person actually involved — no unsourced anonymous Twitter posts.
1,000
3.00@njmkw arbitration opportunity to bring this down below P(Trump loses) given that it resolves NO if Trump wins
@njmkw Thanks, also for the X loss is blamed on Y ones, does someone from the campaign have to do the blaming?
@Arky Yes, the story needs to be “X campaign person says X lost because Y” not just some op-ed making that argument.