Resolves 100% to the person who is nominated by Donald Trump in his second term, and is confirmed by the United States Senate, for the office of Secretary of Defense. Initial candidates are chosen from the Politico list of likely nominees but additional candidates may be added.
In my opinion, the details of the sexual assault accusation against PH are much more of a liability than most commentators seem to think. Even if you interpret the facts in the light most favorable to PH and taking his lawyers' statements at face value, he's shown himself to have pretty bad judgment, and to be susceptible to blackmail about it. This is way too big a security risk for someone nominated to a top-level national security position. I could see him getting in as a recess appointment, but otherwise I think the senate is going to stop in. There are a lot of other people who I think Trump would be happy to get in as SecDef, I think he will make a switch when the rubber hits the road.