Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
Basic
4
Ṁ3892025
54%
chance
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1W
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By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:
>84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index
ie the average of benchmark scores on
MMLU
GPQA
MATH
HumanEval
MGSM
with no regressions on any individual benchmark
Note:
does not need to be an OpenAI model
open weights or free models will count as cheaper
quantized/distilled versions count, as long as they also beat the same accuracy thresholds
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