Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before May 1st, 2025?
243
20kṀ450k
May 2
1%
chance
4

Will resolve to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is photographed between today (Mar 3rd) and May 1st (inclusive) wearing what one could reasonably agree to be a “suit”, similar to his outfits worn before the 2022 invasion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

Clarifications:

  1. Can be in Ukraine or abroad

  2. Has to be an actual photo taken during that time frame, no AI schenanigans or historical photos will be accepted

  3. The “you know it when you see it” principle will be followed. I won’t list every single type of “suit” out there, just use my own judgement to resolve this. To avoid a conflict of interest I will not bet on this market.

  4. Photo must be published before market is closed. Video is acceptable too.

  5. Market will close at May 1st at 23:59 Kyiv time.

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I actually work in menswear tailoring, and the rules around suits are changing very rapidly. Yes this is not a suit in the traditional sense. But this type of jacket is definitely more formal workwear that more and more people call a modern suit. So yeah. Maybe next time we need to define a suit.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Small YES because this is bordering on a semantic debate.

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Zelensky was photographed at Pope Francis's funeral wearing a black suit

sold Ṁ1,995 YES

@Odoacre acutally, not sure it's a suit

sold Ṁ2,468 YES

In Rome on Saturday, Zelensky again decided against a suit, and instead wore a dark shirt, buttoned up to the neck with no tie, and wore a dark military-style jacket over the top of that.

oops

Istr he is Jewish

Some people will not aggree with the resolution either way.

Does not look similar enough to the outfits he wore before the 2022 invasion

sold Ṁ1,693 YES

@aleven that’s definitely not a suit

@aleven Looks like a bereavement suit to me.

@aleven it's a version of a M65 Field Jacket. Which is an overcoat type of jacket and not consider as a suit jacket. But I have to give him fashion credits. For not wanting to wear a suit but still be presentable, this outfit was a strong choice.

I am guessing he will not want to upstage the pope, and will claim a crisis at home prevents him from attending, no matter how much he would like to pay his respects

Why is this market at 5% when Polymarket is at 15? What justifies 1 in 20 level of confidence here?

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Sketchy different months is probably the main reason?

@Sketchy I dumped my shares from 8% to 6% after reading a BBC article saying Zelenskyy won't attend the Pope's funeral after all

@Bayesian I feel like most of the probability is in the funeral at this point. But I guess maybe not.

@traders Pope's funeral coming up. This is trading at 25% on Polymarket.

bought Ṁ25 YES

@HillaryClinton june timeframe. Time enough to get a peace deal by then

@JussiVilleHeiskanen yes, but it went from 6 cents to 25 cents because of the Pope's Funeral. So basically 20% chance to funeral, 5% chance when meeting Trump again.

@HillaryClinton fair point

@Agh I think this is a good market. To me it's very much a coin flip at least, now it's priced as less. Usually out of respect, have to wear a suit.

Этот человек не уважает никого, кроме своей казны. 🪙

Does dress uniform count as suit?

Thinking back to Queen Elizabeth's funeral, he would have been so very out of place not wearing a suit, however I still doubt we will see him in one until the war is over; just about everyone, minus the US Republicans, understand and accept why he doesn't wear formal attire. That being said, risk:reward is so good here.

bought Ṁ109 YES

@vitamind It’s a suit type of event. I’m in on yes.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Predictor buying YES, hoping NO. Be such a flex

@vitamind uh, what what?

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