Will autonomous weapons be used to kill >1000 humans before 2030 in an offensive strike?
Basic
11
Ṁ398
2029
82%
chance

Resolves as Yes if the autonomous weapons, e.g. drones, kill over 1000 humans as part of an 'offensive strike' - an event lasting a relatively short time and not necessarily part of a military act.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Semi-relevant arbitration opportunity:

The US is formally against autonomous weapons. China is against their use but develops them anyway. But anyway China is unlikely to kill 1,000 people in a military conflict, unless a war with Taiwan breaks out, which is unlikely IMO. I think most countries probably fall into one of these two categories.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules