Resolves yes if, by the end of 2029, Apple officially announces that it will release a car. This does not require that the car be released or available by that date.
Similar market: https://manifold.markets/TatianaSurver/will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a?referrer=JoelSteadman
Background: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/
Acceptance criteria: Apple publicly announces some car model (rather than some sort of add-on that can be added to any car) under their brand that is purchasable by consumers.
Edge cases:
Apple relying on another manufacturer for most of the engineering, but brands it as partially their own. Resolves YES
The car is basically just an existing model with some Apple modifications (like how Nike has the Apple Watch Nike) resolves YES only if it has some actual difference from the normal model and it is branded as Apple’s by Apple
The car exists but is not publicly released resolves NO
Bloomberg reports that they are targeting 2028 https://www.macrumors.com/2024/01/23/apple-car-scaled-down-2028-launch/
It would be helpful if you could clarify some edge cases a little. I.e. “does the main engineering of the hardware have to be done by Apple“ or to which extent.
(It's plausible they'd partner with a more experienced automaker and have them design/build some of the hardware. The definitions get somewhat fuzzy. See e.g. the Sony car or the Toyota Supra/BMW Z4, and many others.)
Ofc a clear categorisation could also just be “car with an Apple logo“, even if the car is actually built by someone else.
@JonathanMannhart I have the same concern — would love if some clarification could be posted. Many prominent self driving companies (Waymo, Cruise) have been putting their software + sensors on an existing car, so imo just the software should count
@JonathanMannhart I definitely don’t think Apple needs to engineer the whole thing. I think the reasonable intent of this question would be a car model that carries the Apple brand (or logo) and is marketed by Apple for consumers
Surprisingly relevant headline: https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/11/05/apple-car-expected-to-arrive-sometime-before-2030
NO Because the rumors indicate the launch to be more close to 2026. Since 2017, there have been an announcement from Tim Cook that the company is working on autonomous driving software (MacRumors). Also, in 2021 there where some conversations from Apple with Toyota about starting the production of Apple Car (Mick Chan). According to Mark Gurman Bloomberg Report, the launch is being posponed to 2026.