Resolves YES when/if there is confirming evidence that the X account @IterIntellectus belongs to Luigi Mangione. Resolves NO when there is confirming evidence of the contrary. Doesn't resolve until then.
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): • Market will resolve NO after one week (from March 11, 2024) if no new evidence emerges
Posting from the account while Mangione is in confinement is not considered confirming evidence for resolution
1,000
3.00Surely resolves no, because:
• Luigi is in confinement and iterintellectus keeps tweeting
• their writing styles seem different, and their beliefs are at odds (in particular, iterintellectus is generally very pro-capitalism and pro the US healthcare system)
• iterintellectus would have to be lying constantly about the material facts of their life (they have a gf, they were born and raised in italy, they have multiple siblings, etc etc)
Just seems like there's 0 reason to think they might be the same person
@diracdeltafunk I agree with you, and with the 1% value of this market. Going to wait a week and if nothing else happens, will resolve no. Opened this because of this post https://x.com/somewheresy/status/1866290228350124343
I don't think that account posting while Mangione is in confinement counts as 'confirming evidence'. Maybe 2 bits? I don't think Mangione is stupid, so organizing another person or an AI to post on that account in his absence is feasible. But your other points are valid.