Will a recession start in 2024 conditional on the following oil prices?
Basic
6
Ṁ1582026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
34%
WTI oil prices hitting >= $100 at any point in 2024
25%
WTI oil prices never reach $100 in 2024
First contract resolves N/A if oil prices never hit $100 in 2024; second contract resolves N/A if oil prices ever hit $100 in 2024. Otherwise, the market resolves YES if by the end of 2025 it is declared that a recession started at any point in 2024, and resolves NO on December 31, 2025 if no recession has been declared yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
24% chance
Will oil stay below 100$ until the end of 2024
66% chance
Will Israel go into a recession in 2024
43% chance
Recession in 2024?
6% chance
Is Bitcoin more likely to have an all-time high by the end of 2024 if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024?
27% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will the price Crude Oil (Brent) exceed $100 per barrel by the end of 2024?
55% chance
Will the US economy have a recession [two quarters of negative GDP growth] in 2024?
5% chance
Will crude oil trade above $150 at any time before the end of 2024?
6% chance