Top Chatbot Arena model uses hidden CoT on July 25th, 2025
Plus
3
Ṁ5172025
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the o1 blogpost for a description of hidden CoT, or this market:
/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
This market resolves YES if such a model has the top "Overall" rank on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard anytime on the 25th of July, 2025 UTC.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
47% chance
Which organization will have the top model on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Chatbot Arena - top 3 labs EOY 2024
Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance
Will an open model take the 5th spot on chatbot arena before EOY?
78% chance
Highest Chatbot Arena Elo rating of an open-source model during 2024
Which models will be visible on the ChatGPT default model picker on Dec 28, 2024?
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)