Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
35
Ṁ1874
2026
19%
chance

To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if GPT-4-Turbo's ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

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Ṁ1,000
and
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That's nearly 2 years. There are no 2 year old models in the top 20 except arguably GPT-3.5-Turbo-0613 (which is based on InstructGPT from early 2022, which in turn is based on GPT3 from mid 2020).

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