Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
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The same booster module must have been confirmed to be launched twice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Would be a very impressive fluke!
Might I recommend just "launch twice"? This is the simplest criterion, you don't need to talk about what counts as recovery or anything.
Still vulnerable to Ship of Theseus ambiguity if it gets reburbished heavily, but seems like the best criteria still.
Launching three times seems unnecessary but fine, but don't mention recovery, that just confuses things. Launching already sufficiently implies previous recovery.
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