Yeah, all right, in the interest of my mental health I'm just going to eat the loss and accept that what happened happened. Good day, all.

@ZviMowshowitz Whoopsie daisy!!

Yeah, fair so I'm moving to 75% on YES for a week and basically vowing to call it a day and close the site.

OK, so that was really stupid on my part to do that and I feel pretty sick, but if people want to do me a favor and close it out, I'm willing to accept 65% on the YES side if people want to take the profits now that I realize it's actually $40? I put up 30k there to start.

(I'm not going to ask manifold to break trades or anything, I accept that I did that)

If you think that's too low I'm open to reasonable offers.

80%

@mods change the title to 40 post split

I changed the title to specify "Pre-split". Does that work for the moment?

Yeah, that should be fine.

I will change the title to "$40 post-split ($400 pre-split)" if people confirm this is correct

50K manna limit order on NO at 50% in case you people are fully serious. Don't worry about me, I'm fully hedged by one of my Nvidia shares.

Burned most of my balance.:). I think maybe people are missing the comment that this is pre split value? Dropping under $40 is unlikely

For reference, the person who opened the market has explicitly said it's based on pre-split value:

https://manifold.markets/stuhlmueller/will-nvidia-close-over-400-at-the-e#MQ7liM2JexBgYrGskGsm

Ambiguity kinda sucks but also it would suck on the flip side to have your prediction invalidated by a stock split so

Well shit. Serves me right, I guess. Good call.

There goes... ALL my profits from everything. Sigh.

I mean, like it's only $50, but it's the track record, ya know?

How on earth was this at 90% for four months?

Because it is true today? It's pre split value

Oh I read that as a recent comment a recent one - oops

Still, though, 90% is wildly overconfident

I don't think so. That seems in line with Black Scholes

Hm, I guess it's not wildly overconfident. I would say it probably would be had the criterion been "at any point before the end of 2025".

Nevertheless, using Black-Scholes to determine probabilities over a year out is really not accurate; that's precisely when the assumptions of BS break down!

Y'all realize this is over resolving at over $40 given this factors splits?

Market was partially inspired by arguments like "Nvidia's Stock Price Is Detached From Reality"

If there’s a stock split, how does this resolve?

@TomCohen Good question - the pre-split value matters, so I'd make an adjustment from Y! Finance / Google in that case.

This should really be noted in the question itself via an edit.