I have been working on a study about gender identity in gay men, which I intend to post to LessWrong soon. This market resolves to the amount of karma the post will get.
For context/priors, I recently did a similar LessWrong post titled Towards a comprehensive study of potential psychological causes of the ordinary range of variation of affective gender identity in males, which got 44 karma by the time of creating this market. In it, I studied why some (mostly straight) men felt that it would be terrible for them to be women, while other (mostly straight) men felt that it would be appealing for them to be women.
Thanks to a supporter, I got funding to perform a similar study but specifically in gay men. I will post that post to LessWrong. How much karma will that post end up with?
Resolution criterion: One month after making the post, I will check its karma and resolve this market to the karma amount. If it gets more than 300 karma or less than -100 karma, I will round it to the [-100, 300] range.
This market will close upon posting the post.
1,000
3.00This market is very confusing. The lesswrong post is dated 2022-10-12, so "one month after making the post" should be 2022-11-12, which is already in the past. Meanwhile, the manifold market is set to close on 2023-12-31, which is far more than a month after either the lesswrong post or the market being created. I have no idea what span of time we're actually supposed to be looking at.
@GrettaDuleba The market is about a different post than that one, which has not yet been released. I will correct the description to make it clearer.
@tailcalled Oh got it, I was reading too fast. Title of the market says "my post about X" and then there's a link in the market to a post about X, so I got confused. Good luck with your post!