Will MCTS methods by used by any frontier LLM by EOY 2024
Basic
5
Ṁ129Jan 1
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES on any public confirmation that they are using such methods, NO if no confirmation exists by EOY
Demis saying that they’re trying to incorporate planning/MCTS: https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/
Noam Brown saying similar thing: https://twitter.com/polynoamial/status/1676971503261454340
Similar resolution criteria (definition of frontier, etc.) to https://manifold.markets/marcer/will-dpo-or-an-explicitly-dpobased?r=dGhlc2hvcnRicmVhZA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
At EOY 2024, who will have the best LLM?
will top LLM models use formal methods by EOY 2024?
24% chance
Who will be ahead in the AI/LLM war by the end of 2024?
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024?
54% chance
Will I think that the top Chatbot Arena scores accurately reflect which LLMs are most capable and useful at EOY 2024?
46% chance
At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?